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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still